Document Type

Journal Article

Department/Unit

Department of Economics

Title

New evidence on the relation between return volatility and trading volume

Language

English

Abstract

In the empirical literature, it has been shown that there exists both linear and non-linear bi-directional causality between trading volumes and return volatility (measured by the square of daily return). We re-examine this claim by using realized volatility as an estimator of the unobserved volatility, adopting a stationary de-trended trading volume, and applying a more recent data sample with robustness tests over time. Our linear Granger causality test shows that there is no causal linear relation running from volume to volatility, but there exists an ambiguous causality for the reverse direction. In contrast, we find strong bi-directional non-linear Granger causality between these two variables.On the basis of the non-linear forecasting modeling technique, this study provides strong evidence to support the sequential information hypothesis and demonstrates that it is useful to use lagged values of trading volume to predict return volatility. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords

High frequency data, Non-linear granger causality, Return volatility, Trading Volume

Publication Date

2010

Source Publication Title

Journal of Forecasting

Volume

29

Issue

5

Start Page

502

End Page

515

Publisher

Wiley

DOI

10.1002/for.1151

Link to Publisher's Edition

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1151

ISSN (print)

02776693

ISSN (electronic)

1099131X

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