Department of Economics
Adopting both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests, we find consumer attitude indices of the University of Michigan's surveys are very useful in predicting consumption movements of the United States.
Consumer sentiment, Consumer expectations, Consumption growth, Nonlinear Granger causality, Prediction
Source Publication Title
Link to Publisher's Edition
Qiao, Z., McAleer, M., & Wong, W. (2009). Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes. Economics Letters, 102 (3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.12.010