Year of Award


Degree Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)


Department of Finance and Decision Sciences.

Principal Supervisor

Fung, Joseph K. W.


Forecasting;Investment analysis;Investments;Options (Finance);Stock options




There are three distinct avenues of empirical research relating to option returns. (1) attempts to explain option returns; (2) analysis of models forecasting option implied volatility (IV) versus alternative forecasts of futures realized volatility (RV); and (3) estimation of the economic benefit of volatility forecasting. This study shows that the three apparently disparate fields of research are closely related since option returns are positively related to volatility spread, and asset returns are negatively related to volatility shock. We show that IV outperforms, and indeed subsumes, a subset of time-series historical volatility (TS-HV) forecasts in predicting RV, although the finding that TS-HV does not provide incremental information in forecasting RV, the use of the alternative predictor can enhance the economic profit to option traders. The study also shows that option horizons significantly affect the impact of option mispricing and market direction on option returns. We provide incremental evidence that puts are more expensive than calls and reinforce the argument that pricing asymmetry can be attributed to the greater skewness of put returns due to a negative return-volatility relationship.


Principal supervisor: Professor Joseph, K. W. Fung.;Thesis submitted to the Department of Finance and Decision Sciences.;Thesis (Ph.D.)--Hong Kong Baptist University, 2016.;


Includes bibliographical references (pages 80-84)